Tuesday 29 April 2008

'Population Explosion Is Far More Feared Than A Nuclear Explosion?'

   All human fears, from stuff as microscopic as germs to titanic event like the end of the world. Fear can paralyze us to cease functioning as a person, or it can drive us to overcome it, bringing out the best of our human struggle against our inner adversity. During the span of the decades, there has been fear mongering on global crisis such as the overpopulation and the threat of a nuclear attack. While world leaders like the United States and the United Kingdom have policed the stability of international politics suggested that a nuclear war is unlikely to happen soon, the staggering growth of the human population is multiplying at such alarming rate that it is happening even as we speak! So, is population explosion far more feared than a nuclear explosion?

   The rationality of our fear is usually exacerbated by our mass media experiences. For instances, movies like ‘The Sum Of All Fears’ and ‘The Peacemaker’ presented a horrific threat of a nuclear warfare. Popular science fiction also soothsay the apocalypse following an atomic carnage in ‘Dr Strangelove’ and ‘Akira’. These imaginative portrayals of a nuclear attack fuel the fear of the audience with descriptive mental pictures of radiation burns and agonizing deaths. I was especially struck with the grotesque tale of Hiroshima bombing in the Japanese manga ‘Barefoot Gen’ where defenseless children were left in the wake of the aftermath to survive amidst death and destruction.

   Our historic memories in World War Two where nuclear bombs were dispatched over the Japanese cities had shown us that the threat is indeed real. Images of real survivors relating the tale of the bombing had us reminded that had it been a different time, it could be us instead. And that possibility is not very difficult to materialize give the on going atomic arms’ race in our world now. The victory with superiority in nuclear warfare of the Second World War not only had propelled the United States to a superpower nation, but also encouraged the rest of the world to follow suit if they want to survive the next world war. Current world leaders are struggling to arm themselves more powerful and destructive nuclear war machines. We had witnessed in daily news of how Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, India and China fighting in place to match nuclear capability to that of the United States. The Cuban Missile Crisis has also presented that the threat of a nuclear war is indeed very imminent.

   In contrast, the danger of overpopulation doesn’t appeal to us instinctively like the perils of a nuclear explosion. There are no grisly scenarios illustrating great destruction in loss to fire and radiation. However, population explosion has reasons to be feared in the long run. Pessimistic economists had forecast that soon the world food supply could no longer match the exploding human population’s demands. Such rapid growth will stripped the Earth’s resources and affect humans’ well being as well. Our increase dependence in energy will render us to cut down more trees and mine for more resources. Such vicious cycle will lead to further deforestation, the loss of species and pollution of severe magnitude. Populous countries like China and India now face water deficits. Severe examples would be the malnutrition and hunger leading to death of millions of children in Africa.

   Overcrowding harms the environment by putting more pressure to accommodate our existence. The upsurge in population while not taking measures to ration our exploitation on Nature pollutes the Earth by altering the atmosphere composition, contaminated water supplies and even changes meteorological processes like El Nino, La Nina effects. Ex United States’ vice-president now turned environmental activist Al Gore has his fair share of criticism in the inspiring documentary ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ explored how we had damage our planet beyond damage. And it is easy to amplify those damages with population explosion. Do we really want to leave a planet of filth and full of overcrowding to our own children, a bill that no one could ever repay?

   Perhaps some might find it hard to relate to the environmental and resource issues mentioned above as they might seemed like problems that would happen in underdeveloped countries or far ahead in a distant future. But the ground zero of the population explosion is actually the cities. Overcrowding often occurs in the cities where people gathered to work the economy; it deprived them of privacy, stressed their well beings with noise and air pollutions, and suffocated them during rush hours and holidays. There were simply too much people to be around with! It can injure mental health and cause problems like anxiety, panic attacks, depression, thus impairing their social functions. Overcrowding also leads to high unemployment rates, inequality and illiteracy should the population becomes too much to organize. Poverty and crimes could also add on to the mounting social problems that a population explosion has.

   However, optimistic economists had suggested that overpopulation should not have to be a menace as illustrated above if global cooperation and individual responsibilities are made to control population. Well distribution of resources across the world, the use of contraceptives and birth schemes are examples that can keep the troubles of overpopulation in check.

   In conclusion, while population explosion could affect billions of livelihoods in the long run, a nuclear explosion is far more feared than it. Vivid images of a nuclear holocaust from both fiction dramatization and historic memories of a nuclear warfare struck a more imminent threat compared to theoretical catastrophes of a population implosion in the future.   



16 comments:

  1. do not agree...
    i think overpopulation usually occurs in 3rd world countries and the mortality rate is high... in addition, many of the developed countries are experiencing a drop in birth rate rapidly... perhaps that will balance everything out? i agree that people can't feel the effects of overpopulation immediately and it does put a strain in resources... but it's in the long run... and humans adapt... inventions/solutions are usually made in times of needs... see the Industrial Revolution...

    mother nature also have a way to keep the population in check...through natural disasters and epidemics...

    what do you think?

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  2. in undeveloped countries where there is a tendency of higher mortality rate does not lead to overpopulation, because most could not live past their prime. there is higher birth rate but with shorter life expectancy, it balances out.

    true, the developed countries have experienced a drop in birth rate, sharply. what might be okay with eight to a dozen children now spawn only up to three, due to higher standard of living, increase cost of living etc. mind that the graying population is tremendous, the product of the post war baby boom. It contributes to the population explosion. not forgetting the immigrant factor. when children find it's harder to support their elderly parents while balancing work, they often turn to foreign workers for help, thus this demand attract people to enter the country. there is usually a pull factor in developed country while people exits the undeveloped country in search for better living, thus shifting the distribution of population.

    invention/solutions? take china for instance, years of mandatory birth control, it is still one of the world's populous country.

    epidemics/disasters? we experience black death, world wars, earthquakes, tsunamis, all of gigantic proportions. if God could keep population in check and stop us from diving into each other's pants, we wouldn't be discussing this now. god does keep population in check though, he is busy wiping out people in the 3rd world country.

    human adaptability? sure. many years from now, the crisis of population implosion could be stop if we all evolve to become smaller to fit in the overcrowding... ever see a horse that is engineered to be the size of a dog? that is our blueprint for our children in the future.

    come to think of it, gee, overpopulation is really horrible.

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  3. the nuclear arms race is not to ensure a country's survivability in the next world war, it is to ensure the destruction of the enemy. in other words, nuclear capability acts as a deterrent rather than defence. nonetheless, short of a mad man launching a strike, a nuclear holocaust is unlikely. within 5 minutes of a single payload going off will almost certainly spark off a chain reaction of many more being released. even if the initial damage isn't that grievous, the fall out will pretty much render this planet dead. except maybe for cockroaches. this is the much feared nuclear winter.

    overpopulation on the other hand is a very real phenomenon that we are already experiencing. again, it is not an issue of individual countries but the planet as a whole. the issue is not space but food. there simply isn't enough to feed everyone. food prices have gone up world wide. people in Africa are eating mudcakes to ease hunger pangs. yes, mud. while our youths throw away entire meals because it wasn't prepared to their expectations.

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  4. this is wat i thought as well! however, the question posted is which is more feared. the fear part plays more points than the explosions itself. nuclear blast is more frightening. quoting from jeiong, it is more instinctively feared.

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  5. for sure. death by nuclear blast has a melodramatic appeal that grabs us by the collar and shakes us about. like ghost stories told over campfires, it triggers our fight-or-flight response, fueled by years of sensational media conditioning.

    the looming spectre of overpopulation, on the other hand, is harder to make real in our minds. especially by those living in the relative wealth of develop(ed/ing?) countries. not enough food? that's unpossible! why, the supermarkets are stocked to the brim! and those poor African kids, they're so far away. they're like those pictures you see on cigarette packs - it won't happen to me.

    *puff puff pass*

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  6. for me overpopulation is already scary in urban cities. look at chinese new year the crowd squeezing into trains in china, the queue at the causeway, the swarming in japan subways and not to mention our rush hours. every holidays there are simply too many people to be around, it's suffocating! we are choked to the brim.

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  7. human congestion is more a problem with urban planning than actual population booms though. back in the old days, even village squares were where the most activity was. it's simply a matter of proximity to centralised commerce. fast forward to the present where construction advances have allowed us to stack industries, businesses and people on top of each other, the impact is exponential.

    this is a problem that can be easily solved if governments, business owners and well, people, are willing to rethink how they operate. even in a small city-state like Singapore, when workers, employers, businesses can be trusted to deliver as promised, no more no less, telecommuting is actually a very viable solution. of course you still have your essential services like firefighting, hospitals, etc that require a physical presence. but then, it might be a rather boring place to live.

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  8. easier said than done my fren. simply just the traffic problem is grief enough. recently france forgo erp systems and replan the entire urban planning to relieve congestion while we are just hurling one erp after another soon there will be erp in the heartlands. i would like to see a shuffle in our urban planning, but how do you move stuff when u are in a sea of stuff, a nation is that is packed like sardine?

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  9. correct. people see problems, they want solutions. but they don't want to change. (jialat, I'm starting to sound like men in white)

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  10. i am all for urban congestion. pile up all the humans in one small spot and let the rest of earth breath easy.

    Ecocities: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_city
    Smart Growth: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Growth

    The greater the sprawl, the greater the need for more asphalt, more transport, more acreage of parking lots, malls, cable wires, sewage pipes. More room for humans only translates to more garbage. Look at Hong Kong: the car per person ratio is so small translating to low gas consumption, low gas emissions. With such small space, people cannot afford to acquire too much translating to less garbage. Smaller rooms mean lower electricity, lower maintenance costs.

    Can you imagine if they all move out into homes instead? Look at America with its suburbanites. Voracious consumers and generators of junk.

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  11. i think comelets is rooting for that too. with good management in urban planning and zoning, generate a series of public transportation, a compact city not unlike singapore can thrive to become an utopia.

    that is the overview plan of course and under the assumption that people are sheeps and they like each other.

    now that we are speaking in terms of a smaller stand - the human experience of mashing up against one another having to deal with increase fuel price, policing erps and air/noise pollutions, i actually have a lot to say for the damages that overcrowding puts on people. but the more i think about it, it's not as if the planet is full of people (not yet!) and there is no where else to go. it's not as if we have no choice. there is a choice, our choice. if we want to thrive under economical conditions and come out top, we will venture into the crowds where commerce, trade and currencies are exchanged. ground zero of impact of population explosion is ground zero of money. fortunately there are places to retire if we are sick of being around each other. overcrowding ultimately is a personal choice.

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  12. Sardine Nation~~~! cue boardway lights and musicals. enter merlions dancing in circles and trying to fit into a tin foil coffin.

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  13. Its not really population explosion.
    It is more of a case of mismanagement of available resources.
    Sociologists think that we need far more mass migration (from high population countries to low ones)to offset the effects of population implosion in many countries.(especially eurpoean countries)

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  14. ummm...actually I'm not rooting for that at all. having the urban, "civilised" parts concentrated while letting the rest of the planet "breathe easy" sounds a little too much like Aldous Huxley's Brave New World. (interestingly, Singapore was mentioned as the origin...and this was written before 1965!)

    what I'd like to see is greater adoption of 'work-from-home' employment - something entirely plausible since the majority of business activities don't actually require a constant, centralised physical presence. everything can be bought, traded and communicated online, thereby reducing the need to travel and hence impact on environment. the only people that need to move much will be couriers.

    ideally, this will not turn us into pasty, porn surfing slobs (as if we aren't already) but allow us to choose where to live, spend more time with family and establish stronger community relations. in a way, we will be returning to small commune set ups of old. the technology is already in place, it's just a matter of shifting our paradigm.

    what I really don't like are people living in "1st world" countries who think because they recycle, everything is just dandy. this is especially true of new migrants. they almost always want to be the final batch of people to find the "good life", and everything else should remain "as they originally were". that is incredibly stupid and selfish.

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  15. Its a bit late , but this is what I read somewhere...

    For the past few decades, the dire (and unfulfilled) warnings of overpopulation
    have been ringing in our ears. Strange, then, that the
    United Nations, the US Census Bureau, the Population Research
    Institute, and Eurostat are now saying we should brace ourselves for
    underpopulation. The birthrates of 61 countries (and counting) are in
    negative territory, meaning that their populations are dying faster
    than they’re being replenished. “With growing elderly populations
    and a declining number of workers ages 15 to 65, those countries will depend on large-scale immigration of younger people to provide
    not only goods and services but also the tax base on which the older
    population depends for social services.
    “The U.N. study says the numbers of immigrants needed to offset
    declines in the working-age population are significantly larger than
    those needed to offset total population decline. It adds that the levels
    of immigration needed to offset population aging are extremely
    large and in all cases entail vastly more immigration than has
    occurred in the past.”21
    Additionally: “Recently the United Nations Population Division estimated
    that 44 percent of the world’s people live in countries where
    the fertility rate has already fallen below the replacement rate, and
    fertility is falling fast almost everywhere else.”22
    In the short term, though, we will see an overall rise of the world’s
    population. The number of people in the world will probably peak at
    8 to 9 billion in 2050. (It’s interesting to note that some of the doomsday
    prophesiers of the 1960s and 1970s predicted that there would
    be over 10 billion people on the planet right now. “We were all supposed
    to be eating our dogs and children by now, and wishing we
    lived on the moon, according to forecasts of Paul Ehrlich, author of
    the best-selling 1968 book, The Population Bomb.”
    Many countries (including the US) will peak before 50 years, though.
    “In the U.S. by 2050, the number of people over 65 will outnumber
    people under 15 by 2.5 to one.” As for Russia, “The Russian
    Academy of Science has compared the anticipated population
    decline from 147 to 121 million by 2050 to catastrophes on the scale
    of famine and war.
    The UN’s study also predicts that—if trends continue—the world’s
    population in the twenty-second century will fall below its current level
    of six billion, and that’s just the beginning.2 6 “Unless people’s values
    change greatly, several centuries from now there could be fewer people
    living in the entire world than live in the United States today.”

    World hunger is not caused by the inability of the earth to provide
    enough food for the teeming billions. Instead, it is caused by economic
    and political power structures “Perhaps one of the most fallacious myths propagated by Green
    Revolution advocates is the assertion that high-yielding varieties [of
    food crops] have reduced the acreage under cultivation, therefore
    preserving millions of hectares of biodiversity....
    “A study comparing traditional polycultures with industrial monocultures
    shows that a polyculture system can produce 100 units of food
    from 5 units of input, whereas an industrial system requires 300
    units of input to produce the same 100 units. The 295 units of wasted
    inputs could have provided 5,000 units of additional food. Thus
    the industrial system leads to a decline of 5,900 units of food. This
    is a recipe for starving people, not for feeding them.”44
    According to another source: “Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are
    extremely densely populated, but do not suffer from any shortage of
    food. In fact, heavily industrialized Japan, where farmland is at a premium,
    nevertheless produces as much rice as Burma, which is twice
    as large and entirely rural, while France prod

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  16. very interesting input!!! i was sidetracked with the word "overpopulation" that i forgot all about the falling birthrates.

    interesting tidbit about China:
    Mr. Jackson says there will be 400 million elderly Chinese by the year 2040. In China, the vast majority of the population has no retirement protection or health insurance, so the elderly must count on their children, who are often called little emperors, to support them.

    "Today's pampered little emperors may find as they grow older that the burden of filial piety is a very heavy one. The typical family in the future, particularly in the cities, where the one-child policy has been more strictly enforced, will have four grandparents, two parents and one child," says Mr. Jackson.

    In other words, China is growing old before it grows rich. And it is not alone. Falling fertility poses similar challenges to other large, developing countries, such as Indonesia and Brazil. How they meet those challenges could prove pivotal to the stability of these countries in the 21st century.


    full article here: http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2005-03/2005-03-02-voa41.cfm?CFID=239360400&CFTOKEN=40630929

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